Three Blind Mice


Dear Isolde and John and Mike,

I am fed up with you lot giving cause to constant public ridicule; which has even spread to RTE now.
Let me cut straight to the chase:
I took the time to read through your official responses [see resources 1, obtained under FOI] of June and September as requested by the DCMNR in the March 2004 Policy Direction to ComReg. And I did not like what I saw.

I'll concentrate on part 2 of the Policy Direction: Broadband

The Broadband Policy Direction of March 2004 is very clear: It directs ComReg to "use regulatory and enforcement tools" to achieve something very modest for Ireland: "The Goal is to be at or better than the EU average (excluding accession countries) for end-user access to, and usage of, broadband by mid 2005.

The March 2004 Directive requires ComReg to report back to the DCMNR on the development towards this goal by end of June and end of September.” Had a tribunal judge directing a witness got back what the DCMNR received from ComReg as the formal answer, a contempt of court order would be on foot.
If you cannot deliver on the moderate goals of the Directive, then say so, clear and loudly, but don't you ever give us back this type of misleading waffle.

This is a serious matter. I won't let you off the hook lightly.

I have three major concerns with ComReg's reporting back on the March 2004 Policy Direction. Please address them.

1. End-user broadband access:

From ComReg's reporting: “Overall coverage levels for access to Broadband now exceed 75% and are in line with the European average as outlined in the March 2004 Policy Direction.”
That sounds nice, there are only two problems with it:
– EU average Broadband coverage levels are considerably higher than 75%
– Irish coverage levels for access to Broadband does not exceed 75%, it is below 60% of population coverage.

Stop bullshit us with false definitions! What do you mean with “coverage levels”? The Direction is very clear: “end-user access to broadband” to be at EU-15 average by mid 2005.

Are you suggesting that Irish end-user availability to broadband is in excess of 75%? If yes, please back that up.

Are you suggesting, as I understand your answer to be, that we are currently at the EU-15 end-user access to Broadband level ?

2. End-user broadband usage:

ComReg report back: “Reaching the target of 100,000 will take Ireland to a penetration rate of around 3%.”
“The present target of 100,000 by year end will be achieved. This will then represent around 6.25% of lines.”

With due respect, you are simply not reporting back on the progress you’ve made with achieving the goal of the Directive. Again you are trying to confuse us with your figures and definitions.

The EU-15 broadband penetration rate  mid 2004 was at 7.22 “broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants”. Ireland had 1.59 “broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants” at that time.
With 100 000 broadband connections end 2004 Ireland will have a broadband penetration rate of 2.5 “broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants”, not 3% as you state (2.5 is not 3, and broadband penetration is not expressed in percent).

In your October response you tell us that 100 000 connections will represent 6.25% of lines. This is no end-user broadband usage figure and should not have been used in this context at all. I strongly take issue with ComReg trying to confuse my Department and the public with this cynical misuse of figures. Leave those activities to the incumbent!
If you want to use a different definition than the common OECD broadband penetration  definition, then you can compare Irish household broadband usage with that of the EU-15 countries.
Here our 33 000 residential broadband connections by end 2004 (2/3 of the 100 000 connections are business connections according to Eircom) will give us a rate of below 3% – the EU-15 average is at around 20%!


3. Why do you not use the goals of the March 2004 Policy Directions, but the goals of incumbent Telecom operator Eircom as your goals?

You are supposed to be an independent regulator. You are supposed to follow the Departments policy Directives.

I repeat: ComReg is to achieve the target lifting Irish end-user Broadband usage and availability to at least the EU-15 average by mid 2005.

What am I to think of your response? This is where you make Eircom's targets your own, when you write:
“The present target of 100,000 by year end is achievable…”
“…a significant campaign of awareness raising and education will be necessary to get to the 250,000 target by y/e 2005.”
”Reaching the target of 100,000…”
“The present target of 100,000 by year end will be achieved.”

Please explain to me why 100 000 should be “the present target”, or 250 000 "the target year end 2004?" How did Comreg arrive at those figures? Why did ComReg make the incumbent's figures their own? Did you never take the goals of the Ministers March 2004 Directive serious at all?


4. The rest of your response is superfluous waffle.

Dermot has made it very clear when he issued the Direction that ComReg has to achieve this goal by regulatory and enforcement tools: “This goal is for ComReg.” He goes on to say: “The overall more challenging government target is being addressed by a multi-pronged approach not just regulation and includes public and private sector initiatives to expedite rollout and take-up of affordable broadband.”

So, in your next response, cut out the guff about private and public sector initiatives and stick to telling us how far  y o u   are with achieving  y o u r  goals and what regulatory/enforcement tools you are using.


Next time we want to hear:
1. What’s the EU-15 average end-user broadband usage and how is ours? In clear and likewise definitions.
2. What is the EU-15 average broadband end-user availability and how is ours? Again in clear and comparable definitions.

I want a clear, unambiguous response. I’ve provided you with a simple answer form, which I ask you to use for your next feed-back. As the media will also want to have this information, I ask you to be straightforward to their requests.


Yours
Noel Dontmesswithmey

P.S.: I am afraid the public will soon find out the answer to the question the media keeps asking: Who is to blame for Ireland's Broadband disaster?

1. Full text of ComReg's official reporting back to the Department of Communications as requested by the March 2004 Policy Direction on the Broadband part of the Direction(access gained under FOI; highlighting not in the original):

"1. Policy Direction: Broadband

ComReg shall use regulatory and enforcement tools, where necessary and subject to relevant requirements under European and National law, to support initiatives to develop broadband and remove regulatory barriers, if any exist, to such initiatives. In encouraging the further rollout of broadband ComReg shall have a particular focus on:

• the residential and SME sectors;
• balanced regional development;
• potential for broadband provision on alternative platforms.

The Goal is to be at or better than the EU average (excluding accession countries) for end-user access to, and usage of, broadband by mid 2005.

 2. Report on the Implementation of the 2004 Policy Directions to the Minister of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources

 ComReg Update: Broadband (dated 9 July 2004)

The present target of 100,000 by year end is achievable if a range of new and targeted promotional campaigns with reduced pricing/special incentives are put in place. These initiatives are necessary to ensure current ‘consumer’ take-up levels are at least maintained. Early adopters have where technically possible been provided for and a significant campaign of awareness raising and education will be necessary to get to the 250,000 target by y/e 2005. Reaching the target of 100,000 will take Ireland to a penetration rate of around 3%. The present initiatives by the operators to supply Broadband to the majority of exchanges with populations of over 1,500 are being supplemented by a range of Government initiatives including MANs and Community Broadband. ComReg is working closely with the appropriate parties on all of these initiatives.

ComReg has also through both its licensing of the 3.5 Ghz band via the FWALA initiative and its work with the mobile operators on their 3G roll-out plans, sought to facilitate Broadband competition in a range of different platforms. The recent announcement by ntl that it too intends to develop its Broadband service provisioning is also a welcome development as the absence of a cable competitor has been a significant structural weakness in this market.

 ComReg Update: Broadband (dated 12 October 2004)

The present target of 100,000 by year end will be achieved. This will then represent around 6.25% of lines. While the technology deployed here, which incidentally is that in use generally across Europe, will result in a range of people/locations where dsl may not be available, nevertheless a programme of awareness raising and education continues to be necessary if we are to reach the national objective in 2005. A range of new and targeted promotional campaigns with reduced pricing/special incentives will continue to be offered by various operators. Overall coverage levels for access to Broadband now exceed 75% and are in line with the European average as outlined in the March 2004 Policy Direction.

The present initiatives by the operators to supply Broadband to the majority of exchanges with populations over 1,500 are being supplemented by a range of Government initiatives including the MANs and Community Broadband. ComReg is working closely with the appropriate parties on all of these initiatives.

ComReg has also through both its licensing of the 3.5Ghz band via the FWALA initiative and its work with the mobile operators on their 3G roll-out plans, sought to facilitate Broadband competition in a range of different platforms. There are now for instance in excess of 6,000 people who are getting their Broadband through a wireless service provider. The announcement by ntl that is too intends to develop its Broadband service provisioning is also a welcome development. The proposed investment of € 100m over three years provides the potential for significant further growth n availability of Broadband. The absence of a cable competitor has been a significant structural weakness in the market place here."

2. Broadband usage chart EU-15, beginning 2004



3. Broadband usage chart EU-15, mid




4. Form for ComReg to report back to the DCMNR on the progress made with the March 2004 Policy Direction Broadband goals

 

5. Siliconrepublic reports on our findings

ComReg falls short on broadband, states report

10.12.2004 - The Commission for Communications Regulation (ComReg) is not meeting the terms of a Government broadband policy directive issued earlier this year, siliconrepublic.com has learned.
The telecoms regulator had been mandated to report to the Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources on the progress of broadband rollout. In March of this year the previous minister, Dermot Ahern TD, had directed ComReg to use regulatory and enforcement tools where necessary to bring Irish end-user broadband usage and availability to at least the EU average excluding accession countries by the middle of next year.

However, according to documents obtained by the telecoms lobbyist Peter Weigl and seen by siliconrepublic.com, the regulator is supporting its case by using figures and definitions that differ from the terms set out in the directive. However, the figures remain well below the EU average.

In its submission to the Department dated 12 October ComReg reported: “Overall coverage levels for access to broadband now exceed 75pc and are in line with the European average as outlined in the March 2004 Policy Direction.” This statement, however, referred to broadband coverage, not end-user access to broadband, which the directive had specifically requested. Coverage implies a theoretical take-up as opposed to actual usage of DSL by consumers. Earlier this year it emerged that less than 50pc of the 1.7 million phone lines in the State are capable of carrying DSL, which is the main technology currently used for supplying broadband connections.

The ComReg submission also stated that the “present target of 100,000 by year end will be achieved. This will then represent around 6.25pc of lines”. Weigl claimed this does not meet the department’s directive either. The EU broadband penetration rate referred to in the department’s directive was based on broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants. By that measure, 100,000 broadband connections translates to 2.5pc of the country’s inhabitants. The equivalent EU average in the middle of this year was 7.22 broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, Weigl pointed out. “This is no end-user broadband usage figure and should not have been used in this context at all,” he said.

Weigl also questioned why the figure of 100,000 became a target for ComReg when this was a figure first set out by Eircom. In fact the former state telco last month undertook a major publicity campaign highlighting the fact that it had reached 100,000 broadband subscribers ahead of its own schedule.

ComReg had no response to make when contacted for comment.

By Gordon Smith


6. ComWreck Press Release about the issue:

Press Release for ComWreck.com 12 December 2004

Regulator ComReg deliberately and substantially mislead the Minister for Communications in its formal response of June and September 2004 under the March 2004 Policy Direction.
In March 2004 Minister D. Ahern directed ComReg to use regulatory means to increase Ireland’s enduser Broadband usage and availability to at least the EU-15 average by mid 2005 and to report back on the progress end of June and end of September.
Documents, received under FOI, clearly show how ComReg, who is failing to achieve the goals of the directive, gave false and misleading information about its (lack of) progress in three ways:

1. In its responses about end-user Broadband usage ComReg does not compare the Irish end-user Broadband usage with the equivalent EU-15 figures. ComReg instead tries to divert attention from its regulatory failure by supplying misleading sets of figures.
In the June reply ComReg merely (wrongly) stated that “Reaching the target of 100,000 will take Ireland to a penetration rate of around 3%.”
Correctly they should have stated: “Ireland has currently a Broadband penetration (“Broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants”) of 1.59, compared to the EU-15 average of 7.22. If not more than incumbent Eircom’s goal of 100 000 subscriptions are achieved by year end, then this will give us merely a Broadband penetration of 2.5, which would see Ireland firmly stay at second last place in the EU-15 league table.
In the September reply ComReg stated: “The present target of 100,000 by year end will be achieved. This will then represent around 6.25% of lines.”
Correctly they should have stated: “By reaching 100 000 Broadband subscriptions by year end 2004 Ireland will have a Broadband penetration of 2.5, which is way below the EU-15 average of over 8.”
ComReg’s use the “6.25% of lines” figure, which is no end-user figure, can only be regarded as a desperate trick to confuse the Minister about the lack of progress to reach the goal of the March 2004 directive.

2. In its response about end-user Broadband availability ComReg states: “Overall coverage levels for access to Broadband now exceed 75% and are in line with the European average as outlined in the March 2004 Policy Direction.”
This is a twofold misrepresentation of the facts (a straightforward lie).
Broadband (end-user) availability in Ireland is below 60% of population. Average (end-user) Broadband availability in the EU is above 80%.

3. In both responses ComReg refers to the proclaimed broadband goal of private company Eircom as t h e  goal! To have 100 000 broadband end-users by end 2004 is not t h e goal for ComReg set in the March 2004 Directive. To reach the EU-15 average end-user Broadband usage, the goal set for ComReg, Ireland needs to have in excess of 320 000 broadband users by mid 2005.
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Read the complete story and see the FOI documents on Comwreck.com, direct link to the article “Three Blind Mice” is here: http://www.comwreck.com/blog_34_dec9.html
In the resources of the article we have included a table to use for ComReg’s next feedback to the Minister about progress with regards to the March 2004 Policy Direction. This table comes in handy for TD’s and journalists to ask the Department and Communications about Ireland’s Broadband progress.
See the Siliconrepublic article on our findings here: http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/news4a.nv?storyid=single4184


More about why Communications regulator ComReg is the main cause for Ireland’s Internet and Broadband failure on “It’s the Regulator, Stupid”, direct link is here http://www.comwreck.com/blog_35_dec10.html
This is a must read if you want to understand the situation we are in. I guarantee you will look differently at ComReg after this article. And it has nothing to do with playing the blame game, but all to do with getting the basics right when planning the future.

Peter Weigl for ComWreck.com
tel. 094 96 30867
email: johndoherty@comwreck.com

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